Technical note: Statistical generation of climate-perturbed flow duration curves

Abstract. Assessing the robustness of a water resource system's performance under climate change involves exploring wide range streamflow conditions. This is often achieved through rainfall–runoff models, but these are commonly validated historical conditions with no guarantee that calibrated parameters would still be valid in different climate. In this note, we introduce new method for statistical generation plausible futures. It flexibly combines changes average flows frequency and magnitude high low flows. relies on three-parameter analytical representation flow duration curve (FDC) has been proved to perform well across basins climates. We rigorously prove that, common sets statistics mirroring behaviour, variability, flows, parameterisation FDC unique. also show applied solution exist met practice. These results imply futures can explored by sampling ranges three key deriving corresponding relation model basin response full spectrum illustrate which hydro-climatic proposed run-of-river hydropower plant eastern Turkey financially viable. Results contrary approaches modify using multipliers uniformly throughout time series, our approach seamlessly represents large increased frequencies both matches expected impacts region supports analyses financial infrastructure change. conclude highlighting how refinements could further support rigorous explorations without help models.